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Beijing has deployed its coast guard into the waters of the Senkaku islands and military drones past outlying Japan's territory as Beijing ramps up strains following the Japan's leader's comments regarding the island of Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

On Sunday, the Chinese coast guard announced that its vessels carried out a “lawful patrol operation” through the waters of the Senkaku, which are under the control of Japan but also claimed by China.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation conducted patrols within the territorial waters of the Senkaku islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity conducted by the Chinese maritime authorities to protect its sovereign claims,” officials declared.

Diplomatic Spat

China and Japan have consistently clashed around the islands but the latest activity occur during an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japanese prime minister, the Japanese official, told parliament that if China attack the self-governing island of Taiwan it could trigger a military response from Japan.

That sparked an angry response from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a retraction from Takaichi.

Island's Stance

China claims the island as its sovereign land and plans to incorporate it under what it terms “reunification”. It has left open the use of force. The island's administration and people categorically refuse the idea of Beijing's control – choosing to preserve the current situation without formally announcing independence, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if required.

An military assault by Beijing would risk escalating into a regional or global conflict, potentially involving the United States and other partner nations including Tokyo, which has land just 68 miles from the island.

Military Activity

On the island, the military authorities reported this weekend that it had detected three dozen PLA planes, multiple naval vessels and one “official” ship, which was probably the coast guard, active near the territory over the past 24 hours.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to multiple UAVs flying between Taiwan and the Japan's territory off its northeastern shoreline, appearing to go unusually near to Yonaguni. Chinese military transits there are occasional, but uncommon, and Chinese military activity in the island's ADIZ generally has been minimal in the past month.

Earlier this weekend, the defense officials said Beijing had been carrying out another “combined military exercise” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It added the island had sent its own aircraft and ships to track the developments. Taiwan reports such Chinese patrols a few times monthly as part of what Taipei says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Political Strain

Japan has been experiencing increased strain from China since the Japanese official made her remarks, with China’s consul general in Osaka triggering an official complaint from Japan by commenting that “the dirty head that sticks itself out must be cut off”.

China then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and Beijing's military authorities declared that any Tokyo's involvement would be doomed to fail.

Travel and Education Advisory

On Friday, Beijing advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “appropriate measures”, though it provided no details.

Three Chinese airlines announced this weekend that flights to Tokyo could be cancelled without penalty.

Adding to the tensions, China’s government on Sunday advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it characterized as an volatile safety situation.

Although not an outright prohibition, a significant decrease in the number of Chinese students could have a negative impact on academic institutions in Japan. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were studying in Japan last year, according to education statistics. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the single biggest group.

Official Commentary

Earlier this weekend, a Chinese state media editorial accused Takaichi of staging a political stunt that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a small-scale encounter; it would likely draw in other powers, including the US, and could quickly spiral into a large-scale conflict with severe repercussions.”

Policy Standpoints

The government of Taiwan says only its people can decide its future. Officials in Tokyo have traditionally refrained from publicly mentioning Taiwan when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also preferred by Tokyo’s main security ally, the United States.

However, China’s ruling Communist party says the incorporation of the island with the People’s Republic of China is “inevitable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, China has also been escalating its non-military activity and its statements towards the island.