A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but each side has has something to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
